There is no complete, purchasable database of commercial lease expirations, because a lease is a private contract between two parties and is almost never recorded publicly. Brokers build expiration coverage themselves out of four sources: their own closed deals, leases their clients disclose, public filings that mention a lease, and direct conversation with tenants. Everything else is inference.
Why the complete list does not exist
People new to commercial leasing usually assume lease expirations are a dataset somebody sells, the way property ownership records are sold. They are not, and the reason is structural rather than technical.
A commercial lease is a private agreement. Unlike a deed or a mortgage it is generally not recorded with the county. In some jurisdictions a memorandum of lease is recorded to protect the tenant’s interest, and that memorandum sometimes carries a term, but it is the exception and it skews heavily toward large deals.
So any vendor advertising complete expiration coverage is selling one of three things: a set of recorded memoranda covering a thin slice of the market, a set of self-reported comparable leases contributed by brokers who chose to contribute, or a model that infers a date. Each has a use. None of them is the list.
The four sources that actually work
First, your own book. Every deal you closed has a commencement date and a term, so you already know the expiration. This is the highest quality expiration data in existence and most brokers never systematise it, which is why the reminder arrives from memory or not at all.
Second, what clients hand you. A tenant rep client discloses their current lease as a matter of course, because you cannot negotiate a renewal without it. An owner client hands you the rent roll for the building, which is an expiration schedule for every tenant in it.
Third, public filings. A public company’s annual report frequently discloses lease commitments, sometimes with terms and locations. Bankruptcy filings list leases. Municipal and state economic-incentive agreements often name a facility and a term. None of this is comprehensive and all of it is real.
Fourth, the conversation. A broker who calls fifty companies in a submarket and asks when their lease is up will, over a year, assemble a better expiration map of that submarket than any product will sell him. This is unglamorous and it is the actual answer.
The signals that stand in for a date
Because expiration coverage is always partial, experienced brokers work a second set of signals that indicate a company is about to need space regardless of what its lease says.
Funding is the strongest. A company that raises a growth round hires, and a company that hires runs out of desks. Hiring is directly observable: a sustained jump in open roles in one city is a space requirement forming.
Then the discontinuities. A merger creates redundant space and a consolidation requirement. A new executive in operations or facilities often arrives with a mandate to fix the real estate. A public filing that mentions a facility review is a company telling you in writing.
None of these gives you a date. All of them give you a reason to call, which is what the date was for.
How far ahead to work
For a meaningful requirement the conversation starts far earlier than people expect. A company taking a full floor is typically making decisions twelve to eighteen months before its lease ends, because the process runs through requirement, survey, tour, negotiation, documentation and buildout, and buildout alone can take months.
That is the practical consequence of everything above. The broker who contacts a tenant nine months out is arriving after the tenant rep has already been chosen. The one who called at twenty-four months is the tenant rep.
Common questions
- Can you buy a list of commercial lease expirations?
- Not a complete one. Commercial leases are private contracts and are generally not recorded publicly, so no vendor holds the full set. Products that sell expiration data draw on recorded memoranda of lease, broker-contributed comparable leases, or modelled estimates, each of which covers part of a market rather than all of it.
- How far before a lease expires should a broker make contact?
- For a substantial requirement, twelve to eighteen months before expiration is normal and twenty-four is not early. The tenant has to define a requirement, survey the market, tour, negotiate, document and build out, and buildout alone can run several months. A broker calling nine months out is usually calling after the tenant has already chosen representation.
- What is the best signal that a company needs space if you do not know its lease date?
- A funding round followed by sustained hiring in one city is the strongest substitute. It indicates headcount growth that existing space cannot absorb, it is publicly observable, and it carries its own timing. Mergers, a new operations or facilities executive, and public filings that discuss a facility review are the next most useful.